How Large Will Ron DeSantis's Margin of Victory be Over Charlie Crist?

How Large Will Ron DeSantis's Margin of Victory be Over Charlie Crist?

Javier Manjarres
Javier Manjarres
October 18, 2022

With less than 3 weeks to go until the 2022 midterm elections, talk around both Republican and Democratic political circles is not whether Gov. Ron DeSantis will defeat Charlie Crist, but by how much of margin will he defeat Florida’s most prolific political campaign, Charlie Crist.

The most recent public opinion polls have Gov. DeSantis leading Crist by an average of 7.8 percentage points since the August primary elections

The latest Mason Dixon poll has DeSantis up by 11 points.

The Floridian has spoken to several Democratic political consultants about the race, and while they are hoping the Crist defeats Gov. DeSantis, they are betting against Crist’s chances of beating DeSantis, who is arguably the most popular governor in the country.

It's safe to say that Democrat consultants are bracing their clients for a potential crash landing on election night. Crist’s campaign is the anchor of the Democratic Party’s election efforts.

Several Republican political consultants and about half a dozen lobbyists we spoke to believe that DeSantis has the race all locked up, and should win by 7-8 percentage points.

This is  Florida, and DeSantis did only beat Andrew Gillum in 2018 by 35,000 votes. But with all that said, what DeSantis has accomplished over the past 4 years in office cannot be dismissed.

DeSantis has moved the political needle and galvanized Republican voters and moved Independent voters to change their voting registrations to Republican

As The Floridian reported, Republicans have a 300K voter registration advantage over Democrats.

I say that DeSantis beats Crist by 4-6 points.

Then again, it's all about turnout. If Democrats turn out, then Crist loses by 4 points.

If Democrats don’t turn out, well, DeSantis’s win hits 6 points and possibly pushes closer to 7 points.

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Javier Manjarres

Javier Manjarres

Javier Manjarres is a nationally renowned award-winning political journalist and Publisher of,,, and He enjoys traveling, playing soccer, mixed martial arts, weight-lifting, swimming, and biking. Javier is also a political consultant and has also authored "BROWN PEOPLE," which is a book about Hispanic Politics. Follow on Twitter: @JavManjarres Email him at

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